The biggest news for farmers today is probably the value of the AUD. To help put it into perspective for wheat, the futures market move for Dec SRWW at Chicago is basically about -AUD$4.28/t. The move in the AUD is worth about +AUD$3.60/t. The fall in value was across the board, the AUD is softer against the Euro, Rupee, Yen, most of our major trading partners.
The move in the AUD combines very well with the rally in Delhi chickpeas. One could have been forgiven for thinking that Delhi chickpeas may have ran out of steam earlier in the week. That doesn’t appear to be the case. Average Delhi values closed higher by about Rs101/Q last night. On the back of an envelope that equates to a change of about +AUD$34.79 to the day to day conversion comparison, very nice, a net weekly move of over AUD$52.00/t higher there.

The US wheat futures market was lower across the board, again. Spring wheat, hard red winter wheat, and soft wheat all lower at the board and at the port. Interesting to note that the fall in the AUD is countering the port moves. Comparing yesterdays Pacific Northwest conversions to this mornings. We actually see HRWW values and spring wheat values improve. It’s all about the AUD. While the AUD can sustain or support export parity values here, it’s not bearish local values. The AUD improved the conversion value for Black Sea wheat, Argie wheat and French wheat.
Fundamentally nothing’s changed, if anything hostilities between Russia and Ukraine have increased. Ukraine striking Russian port infrastructure and energy production along the Black Sea, potentially closing Azov Sea traffic before it started.

A weaker AUD makes imports more expensive. Could this be the next excuse the RBA needs to increase interest rates, higher prices due to the weaker AUD. I keep getting a feeling of dejavu, being a young father in the 90s comes flashing back. Can’t place what the political similarities are ??