31/3/21 Prices
It was all negative overnight, with US futures markets closing in the red. Chicago corn, soybeans and wheat were all lower by the close.
The pressure, although still speculative, came from expectations of an increased area of US corn and soybeans in tonight USDA report. Wheat was basically just collateral damage with spill over selling from the row crops.
A better weather outlook for the HRW belt in the US and Argentina was considered bearish for wheat but continued dry weather in the US spring wheat belt, particularly across N.Dakota, and the Canadian Prairies is countering better conditions in the HRW belt a little. The US and Canadian durum belt remains dry with the 30 day anomaly down to just 40% of normal precipitation in N.Dakota. Although a little better in Saskatchewan the durum belt is looking dry at this stage of the game. The USDA will start their weekly crop progress reports in April giving the market better guidance on both sowing pace and production potential.
Cash prices for new crop durum in SW Saskatchewan are yet to respond to the dry weather with prices inching higher overnight to C$284.48 ex farm for an October lift. On the back of an envelope this equates to a rough port number here of about AUD$328 Newcastle. Compared to APH2 on a new crop contract at AUD$305, growing a little durum this year may still have a financial benefit.
The dry weather in Brazil continues to thwart the late corn plant. Although the dots are now starting to join up and there are probably more locations that have had some relief than those that have not the world balance sheet is currently saying it needs as much corn as it can get.