6/4/21 Prices

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US futures bounced back from the profit driven session on Thursday. Soybeans at Chicago lead the way and as usual assisted the ICE canola contract higher. The July slot rallied C$24.60 to C$726.20 per tonne. Cash bids for canola across SW Saskatchewan followed the futures market higher with a July lift up on average C$30.45 to C$744.48 ex farm.
Using China as a destination this would make Australian canola worth something comparable to about AUD$890 / tonne. Currently cash bids in the Newcastle zone are nothing like that. The last cash price equivalent to something closer to AUD$640 delivered Newcastle, a shocking basis from both a historical and international perspective.
US wheat futures found support from good weekly US export loadings and some dryness creeping into the spring wheat belt in the USA. With the USDA now producing weekly crop progress reports keep an eye on the planting progress of spring wheat in the weeks ahead.

A cold snap across parts of Germany and Poland is worth watching this week. Parts of western France may also see morning frosts. Temperatures in the prime wheat growing north of France are expected to drop as low as -3C to -5C on Tuesday morning. With the expectations of widespread frosts we may just see a slight adjustment to the crop condition rating for France this week. The coldest weather is expected across the biggest wheat producing districts. Wheat growth stage is around Zadocks 35. So stem elongation, possibly booting. So damage, if any may be minimal in the north. Further south where crops may be more vulnerable frosts are not predicted.

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