International markets are always a little murky, hard to decipher, throw basis and sentiment into the equation and sometimes I wonder why we even bother trying.
Take the US futures market and to some extent their cash market right at the moment. Looking at futures we see some downward pressure. Isn’t the Chicago futures market the “global price indicator”. Well sometimes it is, sometimes it’s not.
You see at the moment futures values in the US are going down while cash values for many grains around the world are generally trending higher. A lot of it comes down to two simple things. It’s harvest in the US, so supply and demand is taking a slice.
The other less visible thing to us is the restrictions to export volume out of the Gulf that the recent hurricane has caused. With capacity running at roughly 75% that leaves a back log of product upcountry, some looking for a home. This increases domestic supply in the US which in turn is forcing prices lower.
We saw it here this year, export issues through boat and labour shortages while industrial action also contributed. The inability to move export product increases supply in the interior and the cost to export and prices struggled to achieve a comparative world value.

The Pakistan wheat tender saw prices higher than their last tender. Pakistan are expected to have to import more wheat in 2021-22 with extreme shortages being reported across the Punjab region. Interesting to see Pakistan also confirmed the donation of 50kt to Afghanistan.