The weather forecast is the key both here and around the world at present. Social media is now showing some pretty average looking corn in the US central corn belt, corn that will need a good fall of rain over the next 14 days or it will be in a world of trouble. Looking at the 7-day outlook from World Ag Weather.com, there is the chance of a storm around CE Illinois and CW Indiana towards the end of the forecast period. That’s a lot to punt on. But punt it they did, the Chicago new crop corn market gave back some of last week’s gains and closed a little lower for the Sept / Dec slots.
Soybeans were also softer at Chicago. If anything, the forecast was better for the bean states. The weakness in US soybean futures spilled over to Winnipeg, resulting in a softer close in canola futures.
Across the Atlantic EU futures markets ran their own race, Paris corn and rapeseed futures both closing higher. Paris rapeseed significantly so. Converting the gains in Paris to a potential move here shows old crop canola could see gains of AUD$26.77 while the Feb24 contract would convert to gains closer to AUD$20.68 when taking the move between the AUD and Euro into account.

The Weekly USDA crop progress report was out after the close. Corn planting is 96%, the condition rating fell 5% to 64% G/E (73% LY). Sorghum sowing stalled a little in Texas and Oklahoma due to heavy rain in the Panhandle, all up 49% of the US sorghum crop is sown. 93% of the Kansas HRW crop is now in head. Oklahoma wheat is 15% harvested. The total US winter wheat crop rating improved 2%, to 36% G/E, the Kansas crop also improved and is now rated at 12% G/E, that’s like trading up from a HJ with a clapped out 202 to a P76.
Saskatchewan spring wheat area is about 91% sown, good progress in dry conditions. Their wheat crop condition rating is currently at 87% G/E.