7/2/24 Prices

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It was basically a night of technical trade prior to Thursday nights USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report. Nothing ran away, soybeans were a little stronger as some of the shorts were covered. That rolled through to a mixed market in canola and rapeseed. Paris rapeseed firmed while Winnipeg canola bucked the trend in beans and fell away a smidge.
Cash prices across SE Saskatchewan reflected the move in Winnipeg canola futures, but not quiet dollar for dollar. Futures their fell C$4.60 nearby, versus the cash market slipping just C$3.00. Durum values across SE Sask were a little lower, back C$1.32 nearby but less on the outer months, as additional supply into the Mediterranean market continues to weigh on Canadian export values. Over the last two weeks 1CWAD13 XF SE Sask has fallen from around C$433 to C$423, well off the August high of C$488.
Last week Turkey announced they had 150kt of durum wheat to tender. This week Tunisia announce they are looking to buy 100kt. The values in this tender will help establish short to mid term values for durum and tell the market if the recent decline in price is enough or if more needs to be peeled away. Mid term the market is not expecting to see more durum from Turkey hit the market, but in saying that no one was expecting to see Turkey throw this 150kt up either after earlier banning exports of durum. The chance of durum coming from others like Russia or Kazakhstan is remote. Kazak durum production was back 35% this year to just 535kt. With dry weather again becoming a growing problem in Italy this year, durum may find some premiums to bread wheat again.

International sorghum values were mixed but generally a little firmer. Prices FOB NOLA were a little higher, the Chinese Index was a little higher and Dalian corn futures were a little higher. The stronger AUD will generally absorb these slight increases and could potentially counter any upside and turn it around today. As a comparison to other suppliers Australian sorghum still remains the cheapest sorghum into the Chinese market though.

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