Hard red winter wheat futures at Chicago were the clear winner in overnight markets. Although Paris milling wheat wasn’t far behind. The December 24 slot at Paris closed E3.00/t (AUD$4.91/t) higher. HRWW at Chicago closed 13.75c/bu (AUD$7.73/t) higher in the Dec24 slot. US soft red winter wheat futures at Chicago were less convincing, up just 3.5c/bu (AUD$1.96/t) in the Dec slot.
The slightly firmer AUD put a little pressure on conversions, shedding the equivalent roughly 70c to $1.00/t before taking futures or cash moves in physical grain values into consideration. Black Sea values for milling wheat were firmer. Values out of the US PNW were firmer, HRWW there up AUD$7.04/t, tracking closely the futures move.
Fundamental support for wheat comes from recent dry weather in Kansas and Oklahoma. The US weather map is looking a little more promising for a shower or two in Kansas and Oklahoma early next week but falls may still miss the driest parts of the HRWW belt across western Kansas. There is also the chance that the storms predicted will bring strong winds and hail, solid rain is never useful.
The outlook for the Canadian durum belt is also dry, although it’s early days that far north, rainfall there now would be useful.
Russia is the next place to watch. The Volga Valley, especially in the south across the black soil districts north of the Black Sea, remain very dry. As do the eastern provinces of Ukraine, or are they the newly acquired Russian states yet. Other Black Sea states are generally good, Romania and Bulgaria now having a pretty good run with the rain, some locations are seeing too much if anything. Turkey though is becoming drier, and is worth watching.
France had seen too much rain, but over the last couple of weeks conditions improved, drying out slightly. This may change next week, some parts of southern France are forecast to see 75mm to 200mm of rain. This may have a bearing on durum values going forward. Further north Poland and Germany may finally see some drier weather. Argentina is seeing heavy rain across most of the cropping regions, it’s early in the season but cereal sowing delays are now likely.