27/1/21 Prices

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In Canada, SW Saskatchewan, cash bids for canola and all grades of spring wheat were higher. Canola put on C$23.57 for a March lift while spring wheat was C$5.88 higher for the 13.5% product and C$5.52 higher for the 11.5% product. Durum values were a little firmer at C$308.56 for a March slot. The conversion for durum using spring basis equates to a number equivalent to roughly AUD$379 delivered Newcastle port. This conversion has delivered this price +/- just a few dollars for much of January.

Last week’s decline in US futures was said to be mainly technical in nature with a little bearish input from the rainfall in S.America and thoughts that Russia will keep export quotas and taxes as per previous levels. Overnight Russia confirmed that the export wheat duty will double as of March 1st to E50 per tonne. To deter Russian farmers from storing wheat until the duty is removed the government there has confirmed the duty may stay in place for some time after harvest.
News that Biden is happy to start talks with Putin should see the value of the Ruble increase, not a bad thing for us.

US wheat exports are now around 5% better than this time last year. Net weekly US sales of about 330kt were in line with trade estimates and takes US annual export sales to 21.4mt. Asian markets continue to feature but Australian wheat is displacing many potential US sales into SE Asia. To note, the US also made weekly export sales of 293.5kt of sorghum, with China taking the lion’s share of this business.

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