17/3/22 Prices

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The US wheat futures market is like a toddler on red cordial being injected directly into their heart, with a puppy and a pair of scissors. This is worth watching but it can get ugly real quick. As an 85c/bu fall in futures prices tends to indicate. Wheat prices out of the US PNW, apart from white wheat, followed the futures market lower. Canadian and US wheat values shedding between US$30 and US$60 at the port.

It depends on what TV channel or web site you get your new from as to what you are seeing unfold in Russia / Ukraine. I’ve read anything from Putin suggesting “it’s time for a bit of patriot ethnic cleansing” to “a cease fire is just around the corner”, just this morning. The later seems to be the narrative the market was looking for and ran with it, pushing wheat futures substantially lower.
Fundamentally has any country been able to capitalise on the conflict by selling massive amounts of wheat that would have normally came from the Black Sea, no.  Has anyone increased export sales significantly in the short term, well, no, not any of the major exporters.
Has import demand been reduced, well yes, to some degree. Decisions from countries like Egypt and Algeria to ban exports of processed wheat products would stifle domestic demand to those manufacturers would it not.
Brazil may be one of the few countries that exported wheat when they are usually not a major exporter. They are said to have sold roughly 2.5mt of wheat over the last 4 months. A bit of a surprise really. There is talk of increased wheat sowings there for the next crop as well.
Typically Brazil grows around 5mt – 6mt, last year 7.7mt was produced. Oddly the USDA WASDE for March had them down as exporting just 1.7mt of wheat and importing 6.7mt. Their wheat season is basically the same as Australia’s and Argentina’s. Philippines are looking for more SFW1.

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