Paris rapeseed futures fell away E3.75 / tonne on the nearby contract overnight. Winnipeg canola was higher, gaining C$5.60 on the nearby January contract. Cash bids across SE Saskatchewan were also higher, a December lift paying on average C$671.54 per tonne, +C$5.32.
Durum values across SE Saskatchewan were flat, bid at C$463.69 per tonne for a December lift. Spring wheat was also unchanged.
Cash offers out of the Pacific Northwest saw all three wheat grades a little lower in AUD terms. In US dollars values FOB offers from the PNW were generally flat to firmer, not reflecting the weaker close in Chicago soft red winter wheat futures.
Technically Chicago SRWW is neutral to oversold. The funds continue to hold a massive short position in US wheat futures. On the November 7th CFTC report managed money held a short in SRWW wheat of 177,463 contracts, 24.12mt of wheat that will never be delivered against. Managed money also held net shorts in both HRWW and Spring Wheat futures. The volume in wheat look huge, that is until you compare it to corn futures at Chicago. Managed money there short 328,638 contracts, or 41.07mt.
Soybeans are net long for the funds, hence the recent rally we’ve seen in US soybeans that many analyst is over cooked. The rally has generally seen fundamental support from the drought in Brazil. Dry weather across Mato Grosso, Brazil’s No1 soybean state, has the punters expecting to see a sharp reduction in actual production for Brazil versus current production estimates. We need to see this in perspective though, the projected estimate was huge, 163mt. Even if Brazil shed 20mt from this estimate, their crop is still 143mt, that isn’t a small crop. To be considered “small” their crop would need to fall below 100mt or at least below their 2021-22 production volume of 130.5mt. Weather in Brazil and Argentina will be crucial to world oilseed values, thus important for local canola sellers here. Mato Grosso has seen 20-50mm in parts over the last 14 days, but this is 40% – 60% of normal rainfall.