April sees the first of the USDA weekly crop progress reports hit the email. Being the first it’s not massively interesting as the trade generally track week on week variances, but it does give us an insight into their crops as we move through their spring. With little summer crop sown north of the very far south as yet the initial interest will be on the conditions of crops like winter wheat as it comes into it’s reproductive phase.
The hard red wheat belt, the states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are usually the first to warm up and offer us a glimpse of their potential output. Starting in Texas the crop is rated as 44% Good / Excellent and 18% Poor / Very Poor. Oklahoma is in much better shape, HRWW there rated at 73% G/E and just 4% P/VP. Kansas, the biggest US wheat producing state, is rated at 48% G/E and 15% P/VP, this rating isn’t super bad, but it’s not that great either and we should keep an eye on this going through April / May.
The 7 days forecast for Kansas is looking pretty good, heavier falls are expected across central and eastern Kansas later in the week. Good rain now could see a dramatic improvement in these crop ratings. There are some reports of winter kill but they are few, much like the Russian wheat crop, the US HRWW crop does appear to have came through the winter, so far, relatively unscathed but a little dry in places, hence the lower rating for some parts.
The report shows little spring wheat has been sown, not even a concern as yet. Spring wheat sowing is generally not undertaken until late April or May.
The Canadian Prairies continues to see less than average rainfall, but as with the US spring wheat belt, it is way to early to be concerned.

The USDA prospective plantings report showed that US farmers are likely to sow less sorghum in 2024. The March 31st report estimated sorghum area in the states at 6.395 million acres, back from last years 7.195 million acres. The 2024 estimate was also well below the average trade guess leading into the report. International sorghum values were generally a little higher on Friday. The weaker AUD should potentially help local conversions here today.