It appears the Monday rally in US wheat futures was nothing more than a dead cat bounce, failing to run anywhere and threatening to die in the meantime. A bit like the US hard red winter wheat crop, that the punters appear to have forgotten about until the next USDA crop update report on Monday. They say the bulls need feeding daily. Paris milling wheat futures were up E1.75 nearby in the Sept contract, but outer month were a smidge lower or flat.
US cash wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest were lower. The day to day conversion comparison is also helped lower by the stronger AUD. HRWW out of the PNW basis Asia, is back roughly AUD$5.25/t this morning. The Canadian spring wheat conversion comparison is also lower, shedding AUD$3.49/t, roughly the same fall as the US spring wheat comparison shows out of the PNW.
Russian milling wheat C&F Asia is still roughly US$26 cheaper than US milling wheat of a similar protein. Old crop Aussie H2 is a couple of bucks over Argie values into Asia, and roughly US$9.00 over US HRWW. We really need to see Russian wheat climb higher to pull new crop values higher. This might be a long shot though. Russia continues to have a good season for winter wheat. The Volga Valley seeing a little too much rain to the SW if anything, central Russia is seeing average to slightly above average rainfall at grain fill. The only region that could use a shower or two is their spring wheat region around the NW border of Kazakhstan. There are pockets there that are a little dry but this is following a generally wet April, so not really a problem.
France confirmed that 80% of their soft wheat crop was in good to excellent condition. I find this hard to believe as most of France has only seen 40-60% of average rainfall over the last 30 day, but why would a government department make things up, that never happens.
World durum production is expected to increase this year. Good crops in N.Africa will slow demand from that part of the world and persistent rain in Turkey, may have if anything, done more harm than good, but Turkey should be able to produce enough for their own domestic demand this year. Italy is harvesting durum now, not a lot to report yet. Sowing delays continue for Canada after further late rain and snow, snow mainly in the northern canola regions.