The AUD, up one day, down the next, then up again, the punters love their volatility. The rise of the AUD this morning will counter the move in US SRWW futures by roughly AUD$1.00 per tonne. The higher grades were less volatile in the US. HRWW harvest pace and spring wheat condition both improved this week. A quick look at WorldAgWeather.com confirms we may see a little less progress than expected in the HRWW harvest next week. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are all expected to see falls of 20-50mm, heavier under storms in Texas and Oklahoma, the two states expected to make the most progress. Showers may also cross the northern US spring wheat region. It’s been pretty wet for much of the spring wheat country in the US this year. More rain may see the last of the crop struggle to get sown. There’s not much left to sow though, just a little in N.Dakota and Montana, so no reason for concern.
It’s becoming a little more concerning across the Canadian prairies though. Much of Saskatchewan and Alberta have only seen 20%-40% of average rainfall over the last couple of weeks, not ideal for emerging spring sown crops like canola, spring wheat and durum. Conditions in the US Pacific Northwest, the main region for white wheat, is also very dry and there’s nothing in the 7 day forecast for that part of the world or the Canadian Prairies.
Over in Europe the 7 days forecast for France and Germany seems to have improved a bunch overnight, both regions now expected to see 20-50mm towards the middle of next week.
The outlook for Argentina is mostly dry. This is a good thing for them, the majority of the Argentine cropping country has seen 300-600% greater rainfall than average over the last fortnight. This is delaying their winter crop sowing program and also the last of their soybean and corn harvest in places.
Russia is expected to see some showers across the winter wheat region of central and western Russia. The spring wheat regions of Russia and Kazakhstan will also see some light showers. It appears to be pretty close to a dream season for Russian spring wheat so far. This has seen a few analyst increase their estimate for Russian wheat in 2025-26. Not great news, as Russia is a very aggressive exporter of wheat.