US wheat futures took a hit overnight. The data out of yesterdays crop progress report for both spring and winter wheat in the states was more bearish than bullish. The main kicker being the 5pt improvement in the G/E rating for spring wheat.
Both MGEX spring wheat futures and cash values out of the Pacific Northwest for Canadian and US spring wheat were lower. New crop spring wheat out of the Canadian Prairies was back around CAD$3.32/t for an August lift.
Comparing the HRWW conversion this morning against yesterdays conversion into an Asian buyer and then back to an equivalent price here, we see a reduction in that conversion of roughly AUD$0.02 / tonne. The same conversion comparison for spring wheat is back AUD$3.68 /tonne for US DNS wheat. White wheat values out of the PNW were up about AUD$1.82 / tonne on the conversion, a flat US market combined with a weaker AUD creating the gain. A comparison of US HRWW against Aussie H2 wheat on a CiF Asian buyer basis tends to show that Aussie wheat is now just US$5.00 higher. The fact that this is comparing white wheat and red wheat should indicate that the Aussie product is a much better buy for the consumer.
International barley values were on average about AUD$3.00 lower overnight. Most of the major exporters reduced offer values. The Aussie offers falling the most and making Aussie barley almost as cheap as some alternative suppliers into the Chinese market. In USD CiF China, Argentine barley is still cheapest.
If we look at international values and use these to determine a rough export parity number XF LPP we come up with something close to AUD$315 without a trade margin. This tends to indicate that current bids of AUD$300 +/- XF are at least inline with international values, but also fail to show a domestic premium.

The smoke from bush fires across Canada is reducing sun light across parts of the Prairies and US spring wheat belt. Some punters are saying that the reduced UV is having a detrimental impact on emergence and crop progress. I’m guessing the same people are maybe long wheat or Greta fans.