While the US and China were in the middle of a trade war, and US soybeans were off the Chinese menu. S.America took the reigns, exporting roughly 9.48mt of soybeans to China in October, a new monthly record, 17.2% more than Oct 2024, a year earlier. Since then the US and China have met, and progress seems to be getting made. China have agreed to buy roughly their average annual imports of soybeans from the USA and a little wheat.
Futures markets responded well to the rumours but have, in a typical futures market character, now decided to sell the fact. More so in wheat than soybeans, but values have not moved higher as much as one may have expected them too for beans.
Overnight Chicago soybeans closed in the green, unlike corn and wheat futures, which both continued to push lower. Soybeans lent some strength to both Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures. Possibly leading to gains here come Monday. The strength didn’t flow through to palm oil futures though, palm oil falling roughly AUD$14.75/t in the January contract.
Global cash wheat values were generally a little lower bar US and Canadian spring wheat, which continues to show resilience out of the US Pacific Northwest. Spring wheat values didn’t exactly run away in value, but with both soft red winter wheat and hard red winter wheat are falling away, a flat to slightly firmer market for the premium grade wheat should probably be considered a win.
White wheat out of the US Pacific Northwest was flat. 10.5% Club White wheat was valued at US$236.34 FOB, roughly equivalent to US$265.34 C&F Japan. APW1 wheat here is offered at roughly AUD$363 FOB Newcastle, roughly US$263 C&F Japan equivalent. Possibly indicating there is little need for Aussie wheat to track the US futures market lower at this stage.
S.Korea picked up 60kt of feed wheat this week at US$263 C&F. On the back of an envelope this would equate to an XF LPP value of something close to AUD$300 to AUD$310 / tonne. Pretty much bang on where recent business has been done.

Track wheat was initially a little lower yesterday but higher grades found a few dollars as the day progressed. Not so much on the public bid sheets, but some buyers on CropConnect did increase site specific bids around lunch time, and were happy to negotiate price on firm offers of primarily milling grades. Offers of off grade, multi grades, or higher moisture XF were generally dismissed. At this time of year the trade have little interest in difficult negotiations when they can pick lower hanging fruit on a daily basis.
H2 found buying interest into the Newcastle port by road market at $355 delivered Dec / Jan. There was a little interest in H2 / APH2 multi grade business but the spread to APH2 was lean. H2 was also the grade being mostly sought. SFW1 into the local feed grain market was flat, nearby demand remaining strong as trade shorts struggle to get coverage for off grades further north. SFW1 was bid at $317 delivered, offered at $320 delivered. The only stock hitting the market at these values was old crop. My mind still boggles from the fact that old crop wheat is still available.
With US futures lower, and the AUD a little firmer this morning, we may struggle to see local bids open in the green on Monday.
Storms last night were, although very impressive, not rain producing. Most of the regions now harvesting will have little delay. If you were keeping an eye on the radar you would have seen plenty of black cores in the storms around Piliga / Burren Junction. Social media posts showed images of cricket ball sized hail around Carinda.
Moves higher in US soybeans, Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola should all help drag local canola values higher. Oil on the LPP has been good to date but storms are taking their toll on yield. Crops that looked very impressive are turning out average or just a little better than average.

Storms were narrow, wild and impressive last night. Gunnedah airport picked up 5.2mm while the resource centre south of town picked up 20.6mm. Mullaley picked up about 7mm, Premer 3mm, Spring Ridge 5mm, Blackville 3mm.
A storm at Burren Junction created a wind gust of 103kmph, and there were reports of hail in that area. Rainfall associated with this storm was minimal, 1-3mm.

We should expect to see storms pop up again this morning as some heat comes into the day. The BOM synoptic chart shows the trough line the storms are developing along is located roughly in a line from Wollongong to Mungindi at 10am. Basically right over the NWSP but tracking NE and weakening.

The ECMWF model shows the heavier storms this morning could be along the bottom of the plains, more so on the southern side of the Liverpool Ranges, and east of Moree. As the day warms and more storms develop to our west we should see cloud increase across the region, potentially producing light scattered showers or possibly a early afternoon storm towards our east, around Tamworth or Nundle.
Storms are expected to push quickly across the New England clearing to the NE around sunset today.

The seven day forecast from Sunday is generally dry with days warming into the high 20’s or low 30s and mild to cool mornings, 8C Wednesday morning.