4/5/26 Prices

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US futures markets were generally sideways to a little firmer. London feed wheat was softer, as was Paris milling wheat. Which shed E3.25/t in the December slot, Paris corn and rapeseed both closed lower in the last session of the week.
US and Canadian cash wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest were mixed, generally a smidge higher. The AUD behaved, gaining less than 0.1% against the US dollar and generally less than 0.3% against most of our major counterparties. It was a bit of a nothing session to close April out and start on May.

Weekly US export sales for wheat were underwhelming, but expected after the recent jump in US values and the steady values out of the Black Sea and Europe. At 226kt it takes annual US sales to 24.682mt, up 16% on last year, and taking US export sales above the USDA April WASDE target. Now we just need to see if export inspections can meet the USDA export projection of 24.49mt. Currently actual US wheat exports is sitting at 21.855mt. The marketing calendar for wheat runs a June 1st to May 31st window, leaving just 5 weeks to ship 2.635mt, or 527kt per week. At these values probably a tall order, thus we are likely to see some increases to the old crop US wheat carry out number in the May WASDE.
The US did average a good pace earlier in their marketing year, but the dry weather in the HRWW belt drove export values higher. Allowing some US consumers on the east coast to actually buy cheaper wheat from Poland than the US. Although import volume was low, the fact it occurred at all is an indication that the price of US wheat moved too high for some east coast locations to bother with.
The 7 day forecast for the US HRWW crop is not great, possibly some decent falls towards NW Kansas, the area hardest hit with frost a couple of weeks back. So unlikely to fix anything. The SW and Panhandle are expected to remain dry. North Dakota and SE Saskatchewan are abnormally dry too, a concern for spring wheat grower. We should start to see the spread to higher protein grades start to climb out of the PNW over the next few weeks, without rain soon.

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