International grain markets were generally lower. Both cash and futures shedding value on the back of outside pressure, mainly from crude oil. WTI crude shed US$7.19/b in the June slot, Brent fell US$8.60/b. This had a significant pull on the oilseed market, with both Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures shedding value in nearby and new crop contracts. Adding petrol to the fire was a 0.76% increase in the value of the AUD against the US dollar. Resulting in further losses when comparing day to day conversions.
The AUD surged to a 4 year high against the Greenback, reaching 72.69 not long into the session. Profit taking prevailed and the AUD fell away to 72.27, so not exactly collapsing, trading sideways for much of the second half of the session before closing on an uptick to 72.36.
The move is basically a result of the RBA decision to lift official rates by 25pts. The RBA stood behind their decision, stating that inflation is not yet under control. Government policies are failing to reduce “household” spending on essential utilities, i.e. stuff keeps going up quicker than income. The RBA did not take another increase for 2026 off the table. The move saw international punters pile into the ASX, the local index closing higher.

The move in the AUD is worth roughly -AUD$2.50/t to wheat price conversions. Combine this with the AUD$5.33/t fall in futures, and the SRWW conversion is looking a little sick this morning. The same guys that are forecasting our weather must be doing the forecast for the US. The day to day change in their 7 day model is stark. The GFS model now showing little chance of rain across the HRWW belt in Kansas, a little storm weather in the Panhandle and just 5-10mm across the spring wheat belt of SE Saskatchewan and N.Dakota. A change like this and what do milling wheat values do, well they fall of course. What do futures have to do with physical markets in May…sheez ???? The French forecast improved dramatically, good rain now predicted for all of Europe over the next 7 days. Russia is also expected to see good rainfall, a continuation of the all but perfect season they are currently experiencing.