International futures markets were mixed, wheat a smidge lower in the US and France, corn, soybeans, rapeseed a smidge higher. There wasn’t a huge swing one way or the other, but I continue to find it odd that wheat is slipping considering the conditions in the US and a lot of the EU (and here). We just need to remember the markets never wrong, yes it may smoke crack cocaine for smoko some days, but it’s never wrong, apparently.

There is speculation that Turkey may announce on import ban on wheat. This is speculative. As for the impact this might have on world wheat it would most likely be regional. Black Sea sellers, Russia, the most likely to suffer from lower sales to Turkey. Russian wheat is already cheap, their price now placing Russian wheat into world markets that may otherwise look to Pacific rim exporters for supply. The question is would the additional demand already being created by low Russian value allow for additional sales to be made, making up the loss of potential missed Russian export sales into Turkey.
Over the last quarter Turkey hasn’t exactly been dry. One can’t help but think that with Turkey being a major processor, a value adder of wheat into exportable consumer products, that they may just be talking the market down. Longer term they may find themselves in need of blending product, potentially selling lower grade wheat on the export market but importing higher grade wheat. Time will tell.
The other side of the coin is lower production in Australia, EU and the USA, three major exporters of wheat, may counter any fall in international demand.

Sicily is expected to start harvesting durum wheat very soon. The crop is in good shape and looks exceptional. World durum production is expected to climb a little or remain very close to last years production level in 2026. World consumption is expected to remain flat to slightly higher. N.Africa has seen a better crop this year, potentially reducing that regions import requirements. Production adjustments will depend on how the Canadian sowing pans out.