Looking at cash prices in Canada you can quickly determine how bad the drought is. Feed barley is bid as high as C$400 ex farm in Southern Alberta. Looking at the weather forecast on World Ag Weather one may come to the conclusion that things are only going to get worse. The seven day model shows little to no rain across the entire spring wheat belt of both the US and Canada.

Looking at the USDA weekly crop progress report you get an idea how bad it is. Spring wheat was rated at 11% G/E, that’s actually up 1% week on week. The big number is the percentage in the Very Poor / Poor columns, that’s 61%. Harvest is also progressing much quicker than the 5 year average with 38% of the spring wheat already in the bin versus 21% as the average. 95% of the winter wheat is now harvest, Montana has about 30% of their winter wheat left to harvest, one may ponder if this will even see the inside of a silo if not the inside of a cow.
The corn condition rating improved 2% to 64% G/E. The central and eastern corn belt in the US has had a good run, maybe a little hot but the US corn crop rating continues to be dragged down by the poor stands in the northern plains and the western corn belt.

Club white wheat values out of the Pacific North West were unchanged at US$377/t FOB. Dark Northern spring wheat followed the lower lead from Minneapolis to close 7.75c/bu lower for a December delivery, around US$390FOB and still indicating an Aussie port value comparable to roughly AUD$480.