There’s a USDA World Ag Supply and Demand report due out tonight, that came around quickly. For wheat the focus will be on both quality and quantity. There has been issues with quality across parts of Germany and Poland and there was some talk of downgrading of the spring wheat in Kazakhstan. There was downgrading of the durum wheat crop in Italy but an excellent durum crop in eastern Turkey seems to be countering that in the short term. Production issues have arisen or becoming much more problematic in Australia, Argentina and Canada since the last WASDE report in August. There should be production decreases in all three countries, the decline more than likely offsetting potential increases for Russia.
There has been no further talk of significant wheat imports into India. Last month it was speculated that up to 7mt of Russian wheat may find a home in India. Keep an eye on India import projections in this months report. The war between Russia and Ukraine has not had a major impact on export volumes through the Black Sea for Russian wheat, or Ukraine wheat through Europe or the Danube. Although this may change at any given time, at this stage it will be unlikely to play a role in lowing export potential for either entity.
The pre report survey’s carried out by a few of the major news & analytical firms tends to indicate that most punters are tipping a reduction in world wheat carry out from this report, that’s never a bad thing. With the US wheat futures market trending lower let’s hope it’s simply a matter of sell the rumour buy the fact, but honestly wheat has struggled to maintain a decent pulse all year and is unlikely to move either way dramatically unless the world stocks to use ration dips into the 20% range, at present it is projected to be closer to mid 31% to 32%, so that’s a big call.
The USDA weekly crop progress report out last night pegged corn at 52% G/E, back 1pt, corn harvest estimated at 5% complete now. US soybeans were also back 1pt G/E to 52%. Cotton back 1pt to just 29% G/E. Sorghum there 21% harvested and rated 44% G/E, -1pt. Spring wheat 87% in the bin.