7/4/21 Prices

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US wheat futures were slightly lower in overnight trade.
Cash bids out of the Pacific Northwest of the US followed the futures market with bids for HRWW slightly lower, bid at US$262 FOB. Indicating that Australian APW is still attracting about a AUD$15 premium over HRWW.
Looking at the white wheat market out of the PNW we see Club wheat at 10.5% bid at US$7.05/bu. Using China as a destination this value compares closely to a bid of about AUD$345 delivered Newcastle port. If using Japan as a destination increasing ocean rates make the port comparison here closer to $307 pretty much bang on where the current cash price is for APW delivered direct to the port. This indicates zero premium for Australian white wheat over US white wheat into Japan. Given the size of the Australian crop in 2020 current prices are giving the Asian markets a rare opportunity to buy up a very good wheat at a very good price.

New crop sorghum offers FOB Texas are now at a premium to the old crop and some US$120 higher than offers out of Argentina. At US$218 FOB Argentine port, sorghum would work into the Chinese market from there at an equivalent Newcastle port price of something close to $336 delivered Newcastle. This does indicate current Australian cash bids may well be a little low and have not yet given back to the seller some of the recent changes in ocean rates between S.America and China while Australia to China rates remain relatively unchanged. Execution is still a major issue for Australian grains with boats and boxes continuing to delay execution at many east coast ports.

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