Week on week the US crop progress report shows a decline in the corn rating from 76% G/E back to 72%, that’s a significant week on week decline. Prior to the release of the report the punters were tipping a slight 2% decline, not the 4% handed out. This may offer some support to the market in the short term. The crop progress report was out after the futures markets had closed. Futures traded around information released earlier in the day and the weather forecast. USDA weekly export inspections for corn were at the low end of trade expectations so offered little support to nearby values but outer months were supported on thoughts of continued demand from China and potentially hot, dry weather in the mid-range forecast.
All three wheat grades in the US were lower, spring wheat sharply so. The move lower in spring wheat was more technical than fundamental, a quick look at cash vs futures will confirm that. Spring wheat futures were back 27.6c/bu on the nearby while the cash market surged higher by more than 40c/bu.
Canadian cash spring wheat bids were more in line with futures though, slipping C$10.70 for a December lift to C$307.69 ex farm SE Saskatchewan. On the back of an envelope using Japan as a home out of the PNW this price would be comparable to Aussie APH1 being bid at the port at about AUD$390. Yesterday APH1 at the port in Brisbane was closer to AUD$345.
Soybean futures at Chicago were sharply lower, placing pressure on canola and rapeseed futures. Rapeseed at Paris held on well, gaining E5.50/t on the Feb22 contract. ICE canola futures were lower in the July slot but the Jan22 contract was up C$9.60 to C$769.60/tonne.