Some private estimates for the Argentine wheat crop are now coming in as low as 15mt. Conditions in Argentina have deteriorated further in the last month of so, soil now so dry in places it’s preventing the continuation of the corn plant. A look at World Ag Weather.com shows that much of the major cropping districts there have seen between 20% & 40% of average rainfall over the last fortnight. Western BA and NE La Pampa have seen 10mm – 20mm of rain, while much of Cordoba and Santa Fe remain dry.
Conditions across Russia and Ukraine, where winter wheat sowing is underway, are generally OK. There are a few regions of Ukraine that are drying out closer to the Romanian border but most of Ukraine has seen 80% of average rain for the last 30 days. Parts of southern central Russia near the Ukraine border are also drying out but generally the winter wheat sowing is proceeding without any issues.
Much of Europe is seeing average to slightly above or below average rainfall. The UK is a little wetter than average and Spain appears to be seeing some decent rain after last seasons bad drought. Italy is a little dry, as is Romania and Bulgaria.
China is mixed, more heavy rain across the central districts where winter wheat is dominant, while the major corn producing regions are a little dry. Generally the wet weather is probably more beneficial than a hindrance in the short to mid term in regards to winter crops.
There’s been some rain across the chickpeas regions of India over the last 30 days. It does raise the question, why did the Delhi market price jump AUD$20 last night. The last 14 days have been drier than average across the major chickpea region of India though.
US wheat futures and cash markets were lower overnight. Fund selling was active on the back of large global supplies, mainly from Russia. Black Sea wheat prices mixed to a tad lower, Ukraine lower. The wheat market really needs some big news from the demand side to give it a pulse.