The weekly USDA crop progress report was out overnight. Corn sowing has progressed to 76% complete, bang on the same as last year and 6pts ahead of the 5 year average. Soybean sowing is also progressing well, at 67% sown it’s above the pace of last year, and the 5 year average of 53%. Cotton planting is estimated at 41% (40% 5yr avg). Sorghum sowing in bang on the 30% 5 year average, Kansas now 12% sown.
71% of the US winter wheat crop is now in head. Kansas is 93% in head, 21pts more advanced that the 5 year average would have it for this time of the year. That’s pretty normal for stressed crops. The national US crop condition rating for winter wheat declined another point in the Good / Excellent range, now pegged at just 27% G/E. The Poor / Very Poor percentage increased from 40% last week to 43% this week. The rating for Kansas this week is just 15% G/E and 58% P/VP.
Last nights move in US wheat futures was not said to have been on the back of the poor condition of the US wheat crop, but instead was on the back of data contained in a brief on the Xi / Trump meeting. Weekly US export inspections were also poor at just 224kt. The “fact sheet” from the Xi / Trump meeting stated that China will purchase US$17Bn/pa of US agricultural products. This news, and one might argue the threat of a US rate rise, had the funds back in the buyers seat, or as some reports state, selling options. The funds appeared to be happy with their net long of 37,779 (5.13mt) in HRWW futures.
As an benchmark US agricultural exports to China in 2024 were roughly US$24.7Bn.
The jump in Chicago corn futures left a gap in the July chart at 469c/bu. I’m not saying that gaps get filled all the time, but it’s there.

Looking at wheat weather around the world we see the US SRWW crop in good shape, spring wheat dirt in N.America / Canada saw a little rain, very timely. France is a little dry, Germany a little wet, with showers again this week. Russia is having a dream run. China is looking a bit too wet. Argentina drying out.