International futures were a sea of red, apart from Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola, which in itself is surprising given that Chicago soybean futures continued to push lower, back 15.5c/bu nearby and -12.25c/bu in the Jan 27 slot. Paris rapeseed futures gained E5.75/t nearby and E4.25/t in the Feb 27 slot, nice gains, and when we take the fall in the AUD into account we have a change of roughly +AUD$14.65/t in the day to day conversion value.

The AUD helped conversions a lot. US wheat conversions out of the Pacific Northwest could have been much worse if the AUD had of remained flat or gained. The move in the AUD alone is worth roughly +AUD$3.43/t for wheat, the move in US futures is equivalent to roughly -AUD$11.44/t. Hard red winter wheat out of the PNW is roughly US$13/t higher on a C&F Asia basis than H2 wheat off the east coast of Australia. That comparison is getting a little grey, considering both the US and Australia are now having their own drought issues. Argentina had a good 2025-26, wheat production there a record. If we compare Argie milling wheat and H2 local wheat C&F Asian consumer basis, we see Argie wheat is only about US$5.00 less than Aussie wheat. Russian milling wheat remains the cheapest option for the Asian buyer. Some US$36.00 under Aussie values, and tending to capping international values in the mid to longer term.

The US wheat tour wrapped up this week. Participant moved through Kansas and nearby states checking the quality and yield potential of the hard red winter wheat crop. The final yield estimate of just 38.9bu/ac (2.616t.ha) is below the 5 year crop tour average. Total production for Kansas was estimated at 218m/bu, 5.933mt. As low as this is, it was above the USDA official estimate of 214.6mbu, 5.84mt, I don’t know if +/-90kt will have much of an influence on final values though. The US wheat harvest is expected to come in at a 54 year low in 2026. Winter wheat in the north has had a good run but isn’t out of the woods yet, wet weather may increase disease in the short to mid term and the spring wheat belt in the US and Canada is waiting for next weeks 20-50mm with baited breath.