The WASDE data appears to now be a distant memory. The sudden realisation that the US HRWW crop is a bit shagged hardly even rating a mention for the algo traders. Chart trading bears might be eyeing off the gap in the chart at 636c/bu, lets hope not. One might assume if this was the target then it might attract a significant amount of buying interest if filled. Me personally, I’m not a punting man. The data says that the US wheat crop is small, thus US exports should be lower, if not their stocks will tighten. Either way we are longer term better off.
The futures market appears to be focusing on specific news, the confirmation of US trade deals with China. I find this a little perplexing. China was penciled in to import around 6mt of wheat in 2026-27 in this weeks WASDSE report, roughly the same as last year. Now we see the market reacting to no trade deals with China for wheat. What part of the rally this week was based off this assumption, was it not based purely off the sharply lower production estimate for US wheat. The short sightedness of the futures markets still amazes me after 30+ years of watching it.
China’s production is estimated at 141mt (140.07mt 2025). Usage was estimated at 148mt, 2mt less than last year. The only thing that will change this data significantly will be production problems. Looking at rainfall and temperature data for the Chinese winter wheat region, we see no such issues apart from a slightly dry finish to the season, that may be turned around over the next 7 days with predicted rain.

Day 2 of the Kansas winter wheat tour saw more of the same drought stressed, frost damaged fields as the first day. Scouts completed 117 field inspections across Kansas and Oklahoma and came up with an average yield estimate of 2.64t/ha. Yields could fall further as wheat streak mosaic virus has been found in many fields. Day 3 yield estimates were consistent with the previous days, 2.61t/ha. Of the 7 million sown acres in Kansas the USDA expect the header to make it into around 5.8 million, that’s a huge level of abandonment or bailing / grazing. Kansas production was estimated at just 5.94mt (9.21mt LY).