You have to go back to the 23rd of December 2014 to find soft red winter wheat futures for the nearby contract higher than they are today. On that day we had currency of 81.27c and cash APW1 at Gunnedah was $286. Yesterday we had $288 for APW1 at Gunnedah and an exchange rate of 70.64c, a lot of basis has gone adrift in those 6 years. That amount of currency move is worth about $43.00/t.
I wish it was that simple. I don’t have Russian FOB values or EU offer values out of Rouen for that date but I do have the global stocks to use ratio for wheat and it was much lower than it is today. It was at 30.76% versus a number closer to 39% today. So that would account for some of the premium erosion….maybe.
Just reading through the headlines for Dec 23rd 2014 and there are some remarkable similarities. Russia was talking tariffs to slow exports down to keep domestic wheat prices under control. Durum was about $100 more than current values with big purchases being made by Algeria. 2020 has also been a poor year in N.Africa. I should also note that sorghum was trading off the LPP at $295 – $300 ex farm back in Dec 2014 and local SFW1 was bid at $306 delivered Tamworth. Barley was $265 ex farm back then, still the red headed step child.

South Korea picked up 126kt of US, Canadian or Australian feed wheat overnight, supply is unconfirmed. Thailand announced a tender for 192kt of feed wheat, Thailand might be a bit annoyed they cancelled their last tender as wheat has done nothing but increase in value since then. Australia should feature strongly with that tender. Algeria are in for another 50kt of milling wheat after buying 600kt last week.