We have a USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report due out tonight. The trade have mixed views on what this report will hold. Some expecting to see the USDA reduce US exports, increasing 2025 wheat carry out. Some expect to see little change. Funds are long.
One must remember this data is not very current, often reflecting numbers now up to 30 days old. So there’s a good chance it will not show the full extent of the decline in production potential for US hard red winter wheat or the Australian wheat crop currently being sown.

The USDA released their weekly crop progress report last night. US winter wheat condition continued to deteriorate. Their national rating now just 28% Good / Excellent. The better wheat being across their soft red winter wheat country. This time last year 54% of the winter wheat crop was rated G/E, the 5 year avg is 42%.
Drilling down into the data we see Kansas HRWW is now rated at just 17% G/E, back 5pts from last weeks rating. Last week 44% of the Kansas crop was rated poor to very poor, this week that rating stands at 51%. With 86% of the Kansas crop now in head one would think that rain now would be too late to make a difference. Western Kansas did see some showers over the last 7 days, the far west of the state seeing falls of up to 20mm in places. The 7 days forecast for the same region is mixed, central and eastern Kansas expecting to see 30mm – 50mm. The later crop in Kansas is towards the NE, so potentially rain will be beneficial to test weight. It should be noted that the soft red winter wheat regions to the north have had, and continue to have, a very good run. With around a third of the SRWW crop in the corn belt in head, rain there will be beneficial, possibly holding the US average rating at these levels.

Further, better, falls are expected across much of Europe this week, following mostly disappointing falls across N.France last week.