30/3/26 Prices

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Algeria was reported to have picked up 690kt of milling at US$272 C&F. Without knowing the exact details this does appear to be about the current value for Black Sea milling wheat. Russian 11.5% milling wheat is estimated to cost around US$236 FOB. Freight estimates are about US$33.00/t now, this time a few months ago freight was closer to US$23.00/t. This could be the first of the panic buys, as major wheat importers continue to watch international values increase.
Overnight values out of the US Pacific Northwest continued to push higher. The HRWW day to day conversion comparison increased roughly AUD$4.42/t, but more importantly in keeps US HRWW at a C&F Asian consumer basis just marginally higher than the equivalent Aussie H2 price.
The thorn in the side is the Argentine product which works into the Asian market at roughly US$4.00 to US$5.00 per tonne less than the Aussie product. Some freight rates have changed significantly but some have remained remarkably stable into certain regions.

The supply and demand tables for oilseeds and corn is getting harder to work as countries change biofuel blends. Argentina has increased the allowed ethanol blend in gasoline to 15% if required to keep prices down. The biodiesel blend maximum was left unchanged at 20%. Argentina, like the rest of the world, has seen local fuel prices increase significantly since the start of the US / Israel / Iran war.

A dry weather forecast for the US hard red winter wheat belt kept the punters on the buy side at Chicago. Soft red winter wheat regions in the USA are expected to see some useful falls over the next seven days, but the HRWW belt continues to miss out. The March 24th US drought map now shows a large slice of Oklahoma slipping into extreme drought, much of Kansas and Texas also remaining abnormally dry.

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