30/1/23 Prices

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Iraq was said to have bought 150kt of milling wheat from Viterra Australia on Wednesday at US$445 C&F. The wheat is set for shipment in April.
On the back of an envelope this might equate to a value XF LPP of something close to AUD$485, much higher than current cash bids locally.
Iraq traditionally buys either US HRW or Aussie H2 wheat. Black Sea wheat is usually avoided due to the high chance of bringing in fusarium or smut. The sale value is about US$16 under the last major purchase.

Inspections delays and the threat of attack continue to slow the pace of grain leaving Ukraine through the Black Sea corridor. Russia increased aggression on Ukraine in retaliation for the supply of tanks from Germany and the USA. I guess it’s hard for Russia to sell Ukraine Russian tanks direct, although they did give them a few early in the war.
Russian has said they will increase their wheat export tax from Feb 1st to 7th to 4365.3 rubles (AUD$88.05) from 4283.2 rubles (AUD$86.40).

S.Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) picked up 68kt of Aussie feed wheat on Friday at US$343.85 / tonne C&F. Graincorp was said to be the seller. Shipment is expected to occur between mid-May to mid-June. Using the same envelope as above, this sale value roughly works out to something close to AUD$350 XF LPP or around $405 – $410 port. Close to current cash bids. The ocean rate may be a little better than what I’ve used in this calculation as rates have fallen a lot over the last few months. Australia to Japan is about US$33.00, so one would assume S.Korea would be very close to that and somewhat more expensive than the current US$26 into the southern Chinese ports. Makes AUD$55 road to Newcastle look expensive.

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