Canola and rapeseed futures were smashed in overnight trade. I didn’t really see that coming, not to the volume it was hit at Winnipeg anyway. The recent rally was always open to a correction given that the majority of the strength came from outside markets, like soybeans and crude oil. The fact that Canadian canola had gone from cheaper than Aussie, to dearer than Aussie, C&F China in a short amount of time must have been weighing heavily on the Canadian market too. This price comparison still shows Canadian values are higher than Aussie values this morning, even after the decline and AUD move.

The spillover pressure from a collapsing soybean market at Chicago was the killer for both oilseeds, and probably across the entire grains market, last night.
A limit down fall of 70c/bu in the May and July slots, and -66c/b in the August slot are huge moves, considering oil fell about US$5.00/b. It seems to be 100% a soybean correction.
I read a market report from a US analyst yesterday (written Friday) and it went something like “A client asked me why beans are so high, I said I don’t know or care, sell them”.
The guts of the decline is being blamed on the lack of confirmation of further US sales of soybeans to China. No further business was confirmed during the weekend meeting between USA and Chinese officials. The meeting was a pre-meeting to the meeting of Xi and Trump later this month, which now also appears likely to be delayed. I imagine both have some bigger issues than soybeans on their plate at the moment.

How goes the war in Iran. It’s a numbers game I guess. Iran seems to be running out of ammo quicker than the US. This will be the key to the outcome. Without ammo they have no fighting, without fighting they collapse, if they collapse then they don’t pay the bill for ammo. Would Russia / China sell them ammo ??