Jordan picked up 50kt of feed barley in a tender this week. It’s estimated the sale value was roughly US$260 C&F for first half of July delivery. On the back of an envelope that’s roughly AUD$260 XF LPP equivalent. East coast Aussie barley won’t work into a sale of that value. WA is priced at roughly AUD$294 instore Geraldton, which is pretty close to the value needed to compete.
International feed barley values have been creeping higher over the last few weeks. Although price action is often choppy XF AUD equivalent pricing for Russian feed barley is up around AUD$10.00 from recent lows, but not yet at the same values we saw back in Nov / Dec. This might be irrelevant given the strength in the local domestic market at present, but it does indicate that global values are improving, possibly suggesting better values for old crop moving into Q2-3 2026 here, and maybe even better new crop values come 2027.

Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures moved in opposite directions last night. We’ve been reflecting moves in Paris more so than Winnipeg over the last few years as EU imports of Aussie canola increased. Feb 2027 futures at Paris were back €1.50/t, while the Jan 27 slot at Winnipeg gained CAD$7.40/t overnight. Cash values out of SE Saskatchewan reflected to move in the futures market there, up CAD$7.40/t for a Jan27 lift and +CAD$6.79/t for a April 2026 lift. Chicago soybeans closed a little higher, +6.75c/bu nearby, gaining strength from expected US / China business.
Weekly US soybeans sales were just 298kt, the trade had expected to see a number between 350kt to 800kt, so obviously the price is going to go up. Even US weekly wheat export sales were poor, down to 190kt, 110kt below the lowest trade estimate prior to the release. Year on year US wheat sales are still ahead, +14%, but that improvement over last year is starting to decline. Looking at milling wheat into the Asian market we see HRWW out of the PNW valued at roughly C&F US$287. Aussie H2 is now closer to US$289, losing the slight advantage we had, this may see basis eroded today.