The latest USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates report was out last night. It may go down as one of the less relevant or forgettable reports published in a while. I’ll drill down a little into the wheat numbers here to help show you why.
World wheat ending stock are the major issue, the USDA increased these by 6.16mt to 283.12mt, 2025-26 production was increased 2.03mt, to 844.15mt and domestic usage was decreased as were imports. Do these adjustments fly against the current trends, a little yes.
There are some adjustments that could be justified, like the 500kt reduction in Aussie exports, but leaving domestic consumption for Australian wheat unchanged at just 9.1mt may be viewed as an error by many.
EU wheat production was increased 1.11mt to 145.11mt, maybe a little optimistic. Russian production was increased 800kt to 90.3mt, closer to a lot of private estimates. Russian ending stocks were reduced after exports there were increased 1mt to 44.5mt.
So where were the big changes to ending stocks, the number that matters so much. Well India of course, up 4.81mt, and how, well a reduction in domestic consumption, down from 112.51mt to 107.7mt. Should this have an impact on international values, absolutely not. Indian exports are left unchanged at 250kt. The only other significant adjustment to ending stocks was for the EU, +510kt, thanks to the higher production estimate.
Whether or not these numbers get changed significantly in the May report is anyone’s guess, but for now the market looked at the main number, global ending stocks, as being negative when the reality is it is probably more insignificant given the owner of those stocks.

US weekly net export wheat sales were abysmal at just 164kt, this did exceed pre-report trade estimates though. With US wheat values now greatly below both Argie and Aussie wheat into Asia one might expect to see the US export sales volume improve sharply in coming weeks.