It’s all about the AUD this morning. Lucky there was a little upside in US wheat futures to counter the pressure from the dollar.

The question now is do we go through to the long term average, the number so often touted as the RBA’s ideal value, 72 US cents ?
Some punters are already backing 75c as the next level of resistance for the mid term. The combination of National government policy, the US war with Iran and the consequent supply shock to fuel and fertilizer product costs, and the lack of any desire to buffer these costs from the RBA or gov might just see these punters closer than the likes of you or I want to see them be. The governments incentive to slow inflation may also be minimal, they are the ones that enjoy the cost of inflation to decrease the debt burden they created after all.

The USDA weekly crop progress report saw US corn planting progress to 5% sown, 1pt above the average pace for this week. Soybeans are 6% sown, 4pts above the average pace. Sorghum sowing progressed in Texas, passing the half way mark to 56% sown. Sorghum sowing in Kansas is yet to get underway.
6% of the Oklahoma hard red winter wheat crop is now in head. Kansas is yet to see a head and Texas HRWW is 29% headed, pretty much on the average pace. The condition rating of the entire US winter wheat crop declined 1pt in the Good / Excellent rating, from 29/6=35% last week to 29/5=34% this week.
Last week we saw Kansas HRWW rated at 38% G/E, there’s been a significant change this week, now rated just 30/2=32% G/E. The percentage of the crop rated Poor / Very Poor has increased sharply, last week registering at VP-9, P-15 = 24%, this week 12-VP, 20-P = 32% P/VP.
The deterioration of the Kansas crop gave the punters something to look at other than the terrible US weekly wheat export data. Export loading’s were reported at just 321kt for wheat, just above the lowest trade estimate pre-report. US wheat export pace is still 15% ahead of last year.