The USDA weekly crop progress report was out last night. Corn planting progressed to 93% complete, the major production states, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois, are pretty much bang on the 5 years average pace. Indiana is a little slow at 86% sown vs the avg of 90%, but this isn’t enough to be a concern. The USDA increased the G/E rating for corn from 56/12 – 68% last week by 1pt, to 57/12 – 69% this week. Weather across the US corn belt is generally pretty good, rain is creating a few delays here and there but in general rainfall has been average to potentially above average in the west to a little below average in the east, one countering the other to some degree.
Soybeans came in at 84% sown, 4pts above the 5 year average. The first condition rating for the season for beans came in at 58/9-67% G/E. The wetter parts of the western corn belt showing the poorer ratings, but it is actually very variable. Some of the central corn belt ratings are lower than expected, while southern parts, that had seen some big falls earlier, are actually rated well. Early days.
Sorghum sowing progressed from 39% last week to 46% this week, 2pts behind the 5 years average.
83% of the winter wheat crop is now in head, Kansas is 96% in head, 1pt behind this time last year and 2pts above the 5 year average. 25% of the Texas winter wheat crop is in the bin, and Oklahoma has stripped about 4%. The US national winter wheat crop condition rating improved from 43/7-50% G/E last week to 44/8-52% this week, that ain’t gunna help.
The big surprise last week was the condition rating of the US spring wheat crop. This has been the driving force behind an improvement in MGEX and Canadian spring wheat values of roughly 24.5c/bu (AUD$13.85/t) in the Dec MGEX futures. This week notes a sharp improvement, from 43/2-45% to 47/3-50% rated Good to Excellent. This may weigh on US futures and cash values tonight. The trade had expected to see a rating closer to 47% leading into the report.
Winnipeg canola futures and cash values across SE Saskatchewan were smashed overnight. The fundamentals haven’t changed considerably.