30/3/22 Prices

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India booked 45kt of sunflower oil with Russia overnight at a new record price of US$2150/t. This represents a rally in Black Sea values of $520 over values prior to the Ukraine / Russia war. The purchase was delayed as India determined the spread of sanctions against Russia.  Indian banks will supply the LC and Indian insurance companies have insured the vessels. Payment will be made in USD. At these values sunflower oil demand will shift to other oils where possible.
The purchase does show that at some point and price Russia does become an option. At this stage that is for sunflower oil. Will this eventually also become the scenario for wheat, barley and corn. Russia still has around 7mt of exportable stocks of wheat to clear.

In the US wheat futures were again sharply lower. Talk of a possible cease fire in the Russia / Ukraine war and a slightly better weather outlook for the US winter wheat belt were the key drivers. The US spring wheat belt and much of Saskatchewan appear to be missing this rain though. The fall in prices also triggered stop loss orders and profit taking was evident. The cease fire talks come not long after Russia threatened to close energy supplies to western Europe.
Chinese lock downs put a scare in the soybean market. Lock downs mean less demand. Chicago soybeans were sharply lower, Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola this time following the lead from CME beans. Nearby Paris rape was back E34.25 per tonne, the Feb23 slot back E11.00.

Egypt continue talks with French, Indian, US and Argentine wheat supplies. To date no purchases have been made with any of these suppliers.

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